Tony Penecale's Hopkins vs. Kovalev Preview and Prediction

HOPKINS   vs.    KOVALEV

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By: Tony Penecale

Bernard Hopkins has been too old for over a decade now.  During the 6^th round of B-Hop’s virtuoso performance against Felix Trinidad in 2001, HBO analyst George Foreman remarked that the then-36 year old Hopkins was too old to keep his pace and expected the younger man to fight back and score a knockout.  A few rounds later, it was Hopkins scoring the knockout.   

He was supposed to retire at 41 after upsetting Antonio Tarver.  

Yet, he is still here.  

He is no longer “The Executioner,” but instead christened himself “The Alien” as a tribute to his other-worldly conditioning and abilities when most other gray-beards are sitting in a recliner with a sagging belly and creaking body parts.  Win this fight, and they might change his name again to “Ponce De Leon” as he may have successfully discovered the Fountain of Youth!

Standing in the way is a feared, seemingly-indestructible punching machine known as Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev.  23 of his 25 victories have been via KO.  He has only gone past the 6^th round a total of three times.  His style resembles a tribute to Ivan Drago.  So far, whatever he has hit, he has destroyed.  He now takes on a difficult stylistic challenge.  Hopkins has been competing on a championship level for over 20 years.  Kovalev fought is amateur debut when he was 11 years old, in 1994, only a few months before Hopkins won his first world title.  Helping him in his quest to defeat his legendary adversary is trainer John David Jackson who lost to Hopkins in a 1997 title fight and also worked as an assistant trainer for him a few years ago.

Can “The Alien” put on another other-worldly performance on his way to the Hall-of-Fame?  Or, will this finally be the time that Father Time uses the dynamic fists of “The Krusher” to prove that youth can never be defeated?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Hopkins:                  

Age:  49 years old

                                    Record:  55-6- (32 Knockouts)

                                    Height:  6’1”

                                    Weight:  172   ** Weight for last bout (04-19-14)

                                    Reach:  75”

Kovalev:                  

Age:  31 years old

                                    Record:  25-0-1 (23 Knockouts)

                                    Height:  6’0”

                                    Weight:  174   ** Weight for last bout (08-02-14)

                                    Reach:  72”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Hopkins:                  

IBF Middleweight Champion (’95-‘05)
WBC Middleweight Champion (’01-‘05)
WBA Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’97-’99, ’00)
WBO Middleweight Champion (’04-’05)
Ring Magazine Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
IBO Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-‘08)
Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-‘08)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’02-’05)                                                                      

Kovalev:                  

                                    WBO Light Heavyweight Champion (’13-’Pres)

                                   

                                                                       

STYLE

Hopkins:         

No longer the fighter who would apply pressure from the opening bell, winging right hands and left hooks until his opponent succumbed. That version of Hopkins evolved several years ago into the patient boxer-puncher seen today. Uses footwork and works angles well to keep opponents moving and off-balance, dictating the pace with his jab and opening up opportunities for his sharp straight right and left hook. Once in close, will attack the body and use rough-house tactics on the inside, including low blows and elbows. Is also a very tough and physically strong fighter. While still in top-notch condition, is no longer able to fight hard for three minutes a round and he compensates by picking his opportunities.

Kovalev:         

Boxing behind a high guard and applying constant pressure, Kovalev uses his jab as a range-finder, before unleashing his right hand, either in straight or overhand fashion.  Once in close, Kovalev will wing left hooks to the head and body, often with devastating results.  He fights at his best when moving straight in. While he doesn’t have great lateral movement, he is able to cut off the ring, forcing opponents to engage him in confined spaces.  Can be robotic in the ring and sometimes gets too square to his opponent.

STRENGTHS

Hopkins:      

* Student of the Game – There is not a style today that Hopkins hasn’t seen. From his early career in Philadelphia clubs all the way to his PPV main events, Hopkins has faced and defeated all types of world-class opponents.  A master ring strategist, Hopkins has the ability to adapt his game plan to counter whatever he faces in the ring.

* Defense – Trying to land a clean punch, much less a combination, on Hopkins is like trying to hold water in your hands. Hopkins will block, slip, and parry most punches that come his way, but his best defensive maneuver is the “shoulder roll” where he will make his opponent miss by rolling with the punch and then fire back with a right hand or uppercut at his wide-open adversary.

* Confidence – Hopkins believes that he can handle any opponent at any weight. He is fearless in the ring and will not back down. Often times, his steely demeanor and unrelenting focus will have opponents unnerved and already beaten when they step into the ring.

Kovalev:         

* Power – Kovalev is a total wrecking machine with bone-crunching power in both hands.  Kovalev is capable of hurting his opponent with a single right hand or left hook and his power is equal to both the head and body.

                           * Killer Instinct – Once an opponent has been hurt and Kovalev smells blood, the fight is usually over.  Kovalev swarms his wounded prey and bludgeons them with a two-fisted attack until he finishes the job.

                           * Intimidation – Kovalev’s devastating power and steely demeanor often has opponents in complete fear of him, most of them beaten before the bell even rings.  His intimidation factor resembles that of a young Mike Tyson.

WEAKNESSES

Hopkins:    

 * Age – It may only be a number but it is still a fact that Hopkins is only a few months shy of turning 50 years old.  He has defied Father Time multiple times over the past decade but as his reflexes diminish just a little bit, he puts him in harm’s way against a dangerous adversary.

* Controversial – Hopkins is no stranger to controversy and will often say things that rankles not just opponents, but promoters, officials, and fans.  He also has a dirty reputation as a fighter, often bending or breaking the rules and over exaggerating any fouls or retaliation against him. 

 * Fading Power – Once known as “The Executioner”, Hopkins changed his nickname to “The Alien” since he hadn’t executed any opponents inside the distance in over 10 years.  He has stunned a few opponents and scored an occasional knockdown, but every one of his victims since September, 2004 has seen the final bell.

Kovalev:         

* Inexperience – This is the biggest moment in Kovalev’s career.  He is graduating from competing against solid but unspectacular opponents to going up against one of the craftiest boxers ever, one that is a master of mind games and a sure 1^st ballot Hall-of-Famer.  Kovalev has never gone past the 8^th round as a professional and he is facing a fighter who is a master of dragging opponents into the deep water and forcing them to drown.

                           * Cuts – Kovalev is usually the one dishing out the punishment but that does not mean he has not suffered damage.  He has sustained cuts over both eyes.  In each occasion, they were the result of headbutts, a tactic that Hopkins is not shy about initiating.

                           * Focus – Kovalev is preparing for this bout while his wife is preparing to give birth to their first child.  He has openly spoken about wishing he could be there for the birth.  He has also stated that he is not looking to score a knockout and has also said “win or lose” indicating he may have doubts going in against a legend.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Hopkins:          (04-19-14) Hopkins added another title belt to his amazing collection by beating the inexperienced but awkward Beibut Shumenov.  Hopkins controlled the action and boxed well, flooring Shumenov with a perfectly-timed right hand in the 11^th round, en route to a split decision win.

Kovalev:          (08-02-14) Kovalev had to rise from a 1^st round flash knockdown and did so impressively by destroying Blake Caparello in the next round.  Kovalev scored a knockdown with a body shot and followed up by pounding Caparello twice more to the canvas, forcing a referee stoppage.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Hopkins:         

* Felix Trinidad (9/29/01) – Hopkins was the IBF and WBC middleweight champion coming into this unification bout but he was overshadowed by the Puerto Rican superstar and a 3-1 underdog going in. While he promised to match Trinidad in a rough and dirty fight, he shocked everyone, especially Trinidad, by boxing early and building a commanding lead. Trinidad was visibly frustrated going into the latter half of the bout and attacked without abandon. Hopkins took full advantage and punished Trinidad with a variety of power punches, wobbling him at the end of the 10th before finishing him in the 12th to become the unified champion and owner of the Sugar Ray Robinson trophy.

* Glen Johnson (7/20/97) – At the time, it looked like this bout was a masterful win over a boxer with an undefeated albeit padded record. It has become more impressive considering that Johnson has since won versions of the light heavyweight title and scored a spectacular knockout over Roy Jones. Johnson came into the bout with an impressive punch, solid chin, and rugged determination. But it was all Hopkins from the opening bell as he dished out a frightful beating on the inside. Hopkins continued the assault each round, forcing the referee to visit Johnson’s corner several times, before finally halting the contest in the 11th.

* Antonio Tarver (6/10/06) – This was billed as Hopkin’s retirement bout and he was stepping up to a big challenge, taking on the naturally larger light heavyweight champion.  Hopkins, coming off of two decision losses to Jermain Taylor, was an underdog coming in, with many of the experts predicting a Tarver win, citing that Hopkins looked lethargic in his last several bouts.  The Hopkins that stepped into the ring against Tarver was a muscular 174 and he looked rejuvenated, outboxing and outfighting Tarver throughout, scoring a flash knockdown, and dealing out punishment over the last three rounds, forcing Tarver to hold on to the final bell, only to see Hopkins seize his title with a one-sided decision.

Kovalev:          * Nathan Cleverly (08/19/13) – Kovalev won the WBO Light Heavyweight title with an impressive destruction over the undefeated Cleverly in front of his hometown fans.  Cleverly had some success early but Kovalev scored two brutal knockdowns in the 3^rd round before finishing the job early in the 4^th round.

                           * Gabriel Campillo (01/19/13) – Campillo had an impressive showing, losing a disputed decision in a title bout against power-punching Tavoris Cloud.  Kovalev didn’t let Campillo escape the 3^rd round, battering him to the canvas three times and scoring the KO win.

                           * Darnell Boone (06/01/12) – Boone had given Kovalev his toughest bout in their first encounter.  He took him the full 8 rounds and lost a close split decision, only by a single point.  The rematch two years later was a different story as Kovalev demolished Boone in 2 rounds.

                          

QUESTIONS

Hopkins:          * Will Father Time finally catch up to Hopkins?

* Can Hopkins handle Kovalev’s power?

* If hurt, will Hopkins look for a way out?

Kovalev:          * Is Kovalev awestruck by Hopkins?

                           * How will Kovalev react if the fight goes to the late rounds?

                           * Can Kovalev adapt to Hopkins frustrating style?

                          

PENECALE PREDICTION

Hopkins will open the bout on his toes, circling Kovalev, probing with his jab and pivoting on angles.  Kovalev will look to cut off the ring, moving in behind his jab, trying to find the range on his right-hand missile.  Hopkins will feint and move and be content to allow the 1^st round to be a tepid affair with Kovalev landing only 7 punches to his 4, none from either man with any consequence.

Kovalev will come out aggressively to start the 2^nd round but find Hopkins especially elusive.  Hopkins will pivot to his right and fire a lead right hand that will land.  He’ll grab Kovalev with his left and spin behind him while driving a short left into his face.  Kovalev will retaliate with a few long range left-right combinations, but will again find Hopkins out of range.

Throughout the 3^rd through 5^th rounds, a pattern will start to develop with Kovalev not respecting Hopkins offense but again finding his defense to be his Kryptonite.  Kovalev will rush in with another left-right combination, but Hopkins will duck low and force a clash of heads with Kovalev getting the worst of it, blood streaming from a gash over his left eye.  As the bell rings, Hopkins will smile and taunt his opponent.

Inspired by the sight of his opponent’s blood, Hopkins will become more assertive in the 6^th round, looking to land his own right hand and open the gash wider.  After landing a solid punch, the fighters will tie up in a clinch, with a frustrated Kovalev landing 2 looping shots behind the head, prompting Hopkins to audibly complain, and then retaliate with a blow several inches below the belt.  Referee David Fields will warn both fighters for their infractions.

Kovalev will finally break through with a good right hand in the 7^th round.  The punch will cause Hopkins to wobble a bit, and another right hand will knock him back against the ropes.  Kovalev will pursue and Hopkins will counter with his own right hand off the ropes and grab a clinch, taking a few moments to say a few words to his opponent.  As the action resumes, Kovalev will try to focus his right hand to the body, hoping to sap the strength of his geriatric adversary.  Hopkins will also change his strategy and pivot to his left and take the opportunity to rip a left hook over Kovalev’s low right hand, followed by a short right hand.

With Kovalev sitting on his stool as the bell is about to ring to start the 8^th round, Hopkins will continue to play mind games, hopping off of his stool and doing jumping jacks.  Kovalev will grab a few extra deep breaths and move in to continue his attack.  He will land another hard right hand, forcing Hopkins to grab him and shake his head, indicating to the crowd that he is not affected by those shots.

Seemingly the fresher fighter, Hopkins will start to follow his double jab with a chopping right hand.  He will knock Kovalev off balance in the 9^th round but not seriously hurt him.  Kovalev will try to land his own counter punches, but with that tactic not being his strong point, he will only have limited success.

Hopkins will continue to box well through the 10^th and 11^th rounds, using angles and walking his straight-forward opponent into an endless array of counter right hands.  The cut over Kovalev’s eye will open up and begin to again leak blood into his left eye.  Unable to see the right hands coming at him, Kovalev will be caught with several flush shots.

Going into the final round, Hopkins will announce to himself, his corner, his opponent, and the crowd that he is going for the knockout.  He will land another 2 right hands and a left hook before being caught with a flush counter right hand the forces him to clinch and rethink his strategy.  Over the last minute, he will play it more cautious and at the final bell, he will throw his hands in the air.  Kovalev will also raise his hands but carry the look of defeat in his eyes.

Lawrence Layton will score 117-111. Clark Sammartino will score 116-112, and Carlos Ortiz will turn in a curios 114-114 scorecard.  The winner by Majority Decision will be Bernard “The Alien” Hopkins.  The always loquacious Hopkins will give another classic interview where he talks about the possibility of dropping down to middleweight to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr., fighting until he is 60 and also the thought of bulking up to heavyweight and wrestling the heavyweight title from Wladimir Klitschko.