By Tony Penecale
One of the most overused words in the realm of sports and entertainment is the very word “One”. Superbowls or World Series always promote the hype of being the best one yet. Movie sequels will often claim that this entry will be “The One”, as if the ones leading up to it were only hors devours, leading up to the main course. Floyd Mayweather has stepped into the ring as a professional 44 previous times. Many of these bouts were extraordinarily hyped. And while each entry offered something new into the legacy, each ended as the previous one had, with Mayweather’s arms raised in victory and his undefeated record intact. Enter Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, a young Mexican dynamo, most well-known for his fiery red hair. He is strong, physical, and just entering his prime. After 44 previous entries in the Mayweather legacy, will this sequel finally prove to be “The One”? As in the one that defines his Hall-of-Fame legacy? Or the one that sees the first defeat on his perfect record?
AGE, RECORD, AND STATS
Mayweather: Age: 36 years old
Record: 44-0 (26 Knockouts)
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 146 * * Weight for last bout (5-4-13)
Reach: 72”
Alvarez: Age: 23 years old
Record: 42-0-1 (30 Knockouts)
Height: 5’9”
Weight: 153 * * Weight for last bout (4-20-13)
Reach: 70”
RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Mayweather:
1996 Olympic Bronze Medalist
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’98-’02)
WBC Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
Ring Magazine Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)
IBF Welterweight Champion (’06)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’07)
WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’12)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’11-Pres)
Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (’05-’07, ’12-Pres)
Alvarez:
WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’11-‘Pres)
WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’13-‘Pres)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #10 Boxer (’13-Pres)
STYLE
Mayweather:
A pure boxer with great speed who does everything well with an arsenal that includes a snapping jab, accurate right hand, and left hook that can be doubled and tripled with tremendous effect. Uses feint moves to freeze opponents and open punching lanes. Tucks his chin well behind his shoulder to roll with punches. Even on the ropes, he is a difficult target to land a solid punch. He doesn’t have great punching power. Most of his stoppage victories come from outpunching and outclassing his opponents but rarely scoring clean knockouts.
Alvarez:
An aggressive, physical fighter with underrated boxing skills and quickness, Alvarez often wears opponents down with consistent pressure and heavy-handed punches. Will use feints and counters to throw is opponents timing off and create openings for a strength-sapping body attack. Carries fight-changing power in both hands but sometimes doesn’t throw enough punches. While he is most known for his offensive skills, Alvarez has decent, but not great, defensive skills slipping and blocking punches.
STRENGTHS
Mayweather:
* Experience – Boxing is in Mayweather’s blood since his childhood. Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the bronze medal in the ’96 Olympic Games. He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 15 years, facing and defeating all styles.
* Conditioning – Mayweather is a fitness freak with an amazing work ethic when it comes to training. Few fighters push themselves as much as Mayweather does in the gym, even doing midnight training sessions. It is evident in the ring when his stamina carries him in the late rounds.
* Ring Generalship – Mayweather knows every inch of the ring and how to control a fight. He knows when to attack, when to box, when to turn up the heat, and when to coast. Mayweather owns the ring when he is in there. Even the rare times when he has been stunned in fights, he was able to quickly settle down and quell the threat.
Alvarez:
* Punching Power – Alvarez carries thunder in both fists. He is knockout power in either hand, but his most devastating weapon resides in his left hook. A single left hook rendered the iron-jawed Carlos Baldomir unconscious.
* Strength – Alvarez is a physically-maturing and thickly-built fighter with uncanny strength. He is effective in backing fighters up, even when not landing flush punches. Against the smaller Josesito Lopez, he lifted him off his feet and sent him to the canvas with punches that landed against his opponent’s chest.
* Punishing Body Attack – Alvarez prefers to wear his opponents down in the traditional Mexican fashion of punishing the body. While he is economical with his punches, he delivers maximum leverage on each punch, especially the crushing left hook to the liver.
WEAKNESSES
Mayweather:
* Aging – Mayweather may have an unblemished record but Father Time has never been defeated. Since 2007, Mayweather has only had five bouts. In his bout with Miguel Cotto, the faded Puerto Rican star was able to land several flush shots and leave marks on Mayweather’s face. Even with the impressive performance over Guererro, Father Time has added another year to Mayweather’s body.
* Camp Distractions – There is always the combustible element in the Mayweather family with his volatile father and uncle battling over the years. Floyd Sr. took over as lead trainer for the last fight and did a good job but it is hard to forget him being physically removed from his son’s camp back in 2012. If things become difficult, it might result in a sibling rivalry with Popppa Floyd and Uncle Roger battling in the corner.
* Punching Power – Most of Mayweather’s stoppage wins have come from an accumulation of punches. The usual result is the referee or opposing corner stopping the bout to prevent further punishment. Notwithstanding his explosive knockout of Victor Ortiz, it is rare to see Mayweather finish a bout with one punch dating back to his days as a 130 lb boxer.
Alvarez:
* Weight Issues – Alvarez has been fighting at 154 lbs. since 2010 and has not weighed less than 153 lbs. since 2011. Just a few weeks ago, he was tipping the scales at 166 lbs. He is a growing young fighter and the need to make 152 lbs. for this catch-weight bout could adversely affect his strength and stamina.
* Fatigue – Alvarez works hard in the gym and is always in great shape but often finds it hard to go full tilt for an entire round, especially as his fights go into the middle or later rounds. In his last fight with Austin Trout, Alvarez showed serious fatigue at times and even found himself backing up.
* Easy to Hit – While he is better defensively than some of Mayweather’s most recent opponents, Alvarez is still an offense-first type of fighter who likes to apply pressure to his opponents. He will leave himself open to counter punches, especially right hands, a vulnerability that can be deadly against an efficient counter-puncher like Mayweather.
PREVIOUS BOUT
Mayweather:
(5/4/13) – Mayweather put on a virtuoso performance against the slower Robert Guerrero. While Guerrero came to fight and did his best to press the action, Mayweather was able to control the action and land punches at will, winning a lopsided unanimous decision.
Alvarez:
(4/20/13) – Alvarez overcame some difficult moments against fellow undefeated champion Austin Trout but eventually prevailed with his superior firepower. Trout boxed well from a distance but it was Alvarez’s superior power surfaced, flooring Trout and landing the hard punches en route to a unanimous decision victory.
3 BEST PERFORMANCES
Mayweather:
* Diego Corrales (1/20/01) – Experts were torn on who to pick in this one with many leaning towards Corrales to win by KO. Mayweather never let him in the bout, knocking him down five times before the bout was halted in the 10th round.
* Arturo Gatti (6/25/05) – Although Mayweather was a solid betting favorite, many expected Gatti to make things rough for Mayweather. It never happened as Mayweather floored Gatti in the 1st round and dealt out a severe beating before Gatti’s corner stopped the bout after six one-sided rounds.
* Ricky Hatton (12/08/07) – Hatton was undefeated coming into the bout and set a gameplan of constant pressure to wear out Mayweather. After a few uncomfortable rounds, Mayweather was able to find his range and take over, flooring Hatton twice in the 10th round and forcing a stoppage.
Alvarez:
* Carlos Baldomir (9/18/10) – Alvarez was a 20 year old prodigy facing a durable former world champion in Baldomir. Alvarez was successful boxing early and using his advantages in speed and skill to sweep the first five rounds. But it was his display in the 6th that was memorable. Alvarez rocked Baldomir before finally dropping with a left hook, rendering him unconscious before he hit the mat and dealing him his only stoppage loss in a 16-year career.
* Kermit Cintron (11/26/11) – Making his 3rd title defense, Alvarez made it look easy against the faded former welterweight champion. Alvarez made Cintron appear older than his true age of 32, and punished him with ease. Alvarez scored a knockdown in the 4th round before battering him mercilessly and forcing a stoppage in the 5th.
* Austin Trout (4/20/13) – While it seemed closer than the final scorecards had it; it was impressive to see Alvarez take on a fellow undefeated champion, one with a difficult southpaw style. Alvarez landed the most impressive punch of the fight in the 7th round, dropping Trout with a straight right hand, and landing the harder punches throughout the fight.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Mayweather:
* Find the home for his straight right hand. Land it and move.
* Keep the action in the center of the ring and stay off the ropes.
* Use his superior skills to control the tempo and not allow himself to get goaded into a slugfest.
Alvarez:
* Use a stiff jab to Mayweather’s chest, shoulder, and torso to back him up and offset his rhythm.
* Cut the ring off and force Mayweather to fight in confined spaces.
* Use pressure and a sustained body attack to wear Mayweather down.
QUESTIONS
Mayweather:
* Will Father Time finally catch Mayweather?
* Can Mayweather stand up to Alvarez’s pressure?
* Does Mayweather really want to fight anymore?
Alvarez:
* How much will the extra weight loss affect Alvarez?
* Will Alvarez become discouraged if Mayweather starts to dominate?
* Does Alvarez have the experience to challenge Mayweather?
PENECALE PREDICTION
Mayweather likes to box and strategize early, seeing what his opponent has to offer, and developing adjustments from there. Mayweather will move and use a probing jab, trying to keep Alvarez at bay in the center of the ring.
Alvarez knows his best chance to win is to keep Mayweather on his heels, so he will try to punch at the same time, aiming his jab at Mayweather’s body. There will be times when Alvarez will back Mayweather to the ropes and try to unleash combinations to the body. Mayweather will lean back and shoulder roll. Alvarez will throw some hard, single punches to the body, with most landing on Mayweather’s arms. Alvarez’s power punches to the hand will glance off Mayweather’s shoulders but a few stiff jabs will land solidly to Mayweather’s face.
Starting in the 3rd round, Mayweather will start to adapt his strategy, allowing Alvarez to continue to rush him, but then countering with short right hands and uppercuts after every time Alvarez opens up. The action will continue on even terms with Alvarez’s youth making it competitive, but the sense will be that Mayweather is adapting and the momentum is slowly shifting in his favor.
Mayweather will show a few signs of battle going into the 5th round, with slight swelling around his left eye and some abrasions on his mouth. But, by this time, he will have figured out Alvarez’s strategy, and will become more aggressive with his right hand, either following it behind the jab, or shooting it out as a lead punch, and often doubling it.
Alvarez will start showing the wounds of war, with his nose bleeding and his face turning as red as the hair atop his head. As a young fighter, who has been for the most part dominant in his career, the look of doubt will start to creep into Alvarez’s eyes.
By the 8th round, Mayweather will start to assert dominant control. Mayweather has always had the uncanny ability to close the show without exposing himself to any dangerous counterpunches. Alvarez will start to use his legs a little bit more, trying to regroup and figure out another plan of attack.
For Alvarez it will be to no avail. He has tremendous heart but does not have the experience at this time against a great fighter like Mayweather. Mayweather will land without hesitation throughout the 9th round and between rounds, referee Kenny Bayless will visit Alvarez’s corner and see if the Mexican fighter can continue. Alvarez will nod affirmatively but it will only be a matter of time. With Mayweather landing at will and Alvarez started to take copious amounts of punishment, his eyes swelling shut and nose freely leaking, Bayless will step in and stop the fight of 2:24 of the 10th round.
The winner by TKO in the 10th round will be Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr.!!!
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