By: Tony Penecale
Boxing’s most polarizing and controversial fighter is back. Love him or hate him, everybody has an opinion about Floyd “Money” Mayweather. Only weeks before he is set to serve a prison stint for domestic battery, Mayweather will use his fists to try and batter Miguel Cotto. While Mayweather is outspoken and brash, Cotto is the polar opposite, a soft-spoken Puerto Rican fighter with a big heart and heavy fists. While it may be perceived that Cotto has seen better days in his career, his aggressive, physical style and rib-crushing body punches could equal the formula to overcome Mayweather’s superior skill set. Can Cotto do what 42 other fighters have failed to do and rob “Money” Mayweather of his perfect record? Or will Mayweather add Cotto to his list of victims?
AGE, RECORD, AND STATS
Mayweather: Age: 35 years old
Record: 42-0 (26 Knockouts)
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 146 * * Weight for last bout (9-17-11)
Reach: 72”
Cotto: Age: 31 years old
Record: 37-2 (30 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 152 * * Weight for last bout (12-3-11)
Reach: 67”
RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Mayweather:
1996 Olympic Bronze Medalist
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’98-’02)
WBC Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
Ring Magazine Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)
IBF Welterweight Champion (’06)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’07)
Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (’05-‘07)
Cotto:
WBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’04-‘06)
WBA Welterweight Champion (’06-‘08)
WBO Welterweight Champion (’09)
WBS Junior Middleweight Champion (’10-Pres)
STYLE
Mayweather:
A pure boxer with great speed who does everything well with an arsenal that includes a snapping jab, accurate right hand, and left hook that can be doubled and tripled with tremendous effect. Uses feint moves to freeze opponents and open punching lanes. Tucks his chin well behind his shoulder to roll with punches. Even on the ropes, he is a difficult target to land a solid punch. He doesn’t have great punching power. Most of his stoppage victories come from outpunching and outclassing his opponents but rarely scoring clean knockouts.
Cotto:
A physical stalker who boxes from the orthodox stance, Cotto has developed better boxing skills but still prefers to come straight ahead, and wear opponents down with a vicious body attack. Cotto favors hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of attrition. Doesn’t have lights-out punching power but is very punishing. Most of his stoppage victories have come late, after his opponent has been worn down. Will often leave himself open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.
STRENGTHS
Mayweather:
* Experience – Boxing is in Mayweather’s blood since his childhood. Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the bronze medal in the ’96 Olympic Games. He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 14 years, facing and defeating all styles.
* Speed – Speed Kills. Mayweather has incredible hand and foot speed, which allows him to move inside, unload his offense, and dart out of range before his opponent can set himself.
* Ring Generalship – Mayweather knows every inch of the ring and how to control a fight. He knows when to attack, when to box, when to turn up the heat, and when to coast. Mayweather owns the ring when he is in there. Even when stunned in the Mosley fight, he was able to quickly settle down and quell the threat.
Cotto:
* Body Attack – Cotto is quite possibly the best body puncher in the sport today. He wings thunderous hooks on the inside that make contact with whatever is available: ribs, shoulders, torso, chest, and arms, with punishing results.
* Strength – Cotto is a strong and physical fighter. While he fights at junior middleweight, he has the physical stature and physicality of a super middleweight, which he uses to muscle and wear down opponents.
* Heart – Cotto carries a lot of pride when he steps into the ring. He has been in a number of wars where he’s been cut, knocked down, or in other adverse situations, and Cotto has shown a champion’s heart.
WEAKNESSES
Mayweather:
* Questionable Chin – Mayweather’s chin is a question mark only because it is tested so infrequently. The only real flush shot he took against Shane Mosley badly staggered him. As Mayweather gets older and his reflexes slightly diminish, his chin might finally be tested as his last line of defense.
* Distractions – There is always the potential of distractions looming over Mayweather every time he steps in the ring, whether it’s failed negotiations for a superfight with Manny Pacquiao, the ever-looming family feud with his father, and now the pending prison sentence for domestic abuse which he will serve shortly after the fight.
* Punching Power – Most of Mayweather’s stoppage wins have come from an accumulation of punches. The usual result is the referee or opposing corner stopping the bout to prevent further punishment. Notwithstanding his explosive knockout of Victor Ortiz, it is rare to see Mayweather finish a bout with one punch dating back to his days as a 130 lb boxer.
Cotto:
* Effects of Wars – Could the wars that Cotto finally be catching up to him? He’s had tough fights with Ricardo Torres, Zab Judah, and Shane Mosley before losing in brutal fashion to Antonio Margarito and Manny Pacquiao. While he has been successful against limited competition since those losses, it will be interesting to see how much he really has left.
* Easy to Hit – Cotto has made improvements with his defense but still has the mindset that his best defense is a good offense. His wide open offense and relentless body attack often leaves him open to be hit with counterpunches, primarily hooks and uppercuts.
* Chin – Combined with an offense that leaves him prone to counter punches, Cotto’s shaky chin can be a recipe for disaster. Cotto was wobbled or dropped in several of his earlier fights and then battered, bloodied and TKO’d in his two biggest fights against Margarito (1st fight) and Pacquiao.
PREVIOUS BOUT
Mayweather:
(9/17/11) – Mayweather scored an explosive 4th round knockout over Victor Ortiz; however it was overshadowed by the controversial final moments. Mayweather was dominating the bout, using his speed and precise right hands to split the guard of his aggressive southpaw opponent. Ortiz showed his frustration in the 4th round by intentionally headbutting Mayweather in the face. After Ortiz’s third apologetic hug, Mayweather blasted him with a two-punch combination, resulting in an emphatic knockout.
Cotto:
(12/3/11) – Cotto avenged his first career loss, bludgeoning Antonio Margarito over nine rounds. Cotto used superior boxing skills to control the pace and hit the slower Margarito at will. He avoided the same pratfalls that doomed him in their first bout and his left hooks rendered Margarito a swollen mess, which prompted the ringside physician to halt the contest.
3 BEST PERFORMANCES
Mayweather:
* Diego Corrales (1/20/01) – Experts were torn on who to pick in this one with many leaning towards Corrales to win by KO. Mayweather never let him in the bout, knocking him down five times before the bout was halted in the 10th round.
* Arturo Gatti (6/25/05) – Although Mayweather was a solid betting favorite, many expected Gatti to make things rough for Mayweather. It never happened as Mayweather floored Gatti in the 1st round and dealt out a severe beating before Gatti’s corner stopped the bout after six one-sided rounds.
* Ricky Hatton (12/08/07) – Hatton was undefeated coming into the bout and set a gameplan of constant pressure to wear out Mayweather. After a few uncomfortable rounds, Mayweather was able to find his range and take over, flooring Hatton twice in the 10th round and forcing a stoppage.
Cotto:
* Zab Judah (6/09/07) – Cotto had to endure some difficult moments early against the speedy southpaw, getting rocked and suffering a cut under his lip. Cotto’s relentless pressure gradually broke down Judah, sapping his strength. Cotto finished the show, dropping Judah in the 9th round before finally stopping him in 11 rounds.
* Mohamad Abdulaev (6/11/05) – Cotto systematically punished Abdulaev over nine rounds, pounding him to the head and body, swelling his eye completely shut, and forcing him to surrender. An impressive performance against the highly-respected 2000 Olympic Gold Medalist.
* Alfonso Gomez (4/12/08) – Cotto put on a stunning display, mixing boxing skills with a vicious body attack to completely obliterate popular “Contender” alum Gomez by 5th round TKO. Cotto dominated the action and scored knockdowns in the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounds, beating Gomez into submission.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Mayweather:
* Remain focused on the task at hand.
* Keep the action in the center of the ring and stay off the ropes.
* Use his superior skills to control the tempo and not allow himself to get goaded into a slugfest.
Cotto:
* Apply methodical pressure and utilize a thumping jab to the body and chest to back Mayweather on his heels.
* Cut the ring off and force Mayweather to fight in confined spaces.
* Use a sustained body attack to slow Mayweather down.
QUESTIONS
Mayweather:
* Will his pending prison stay affect Mayweather’s concentration?
* Can Mayweather stand up to Cotto’s punishing body assault?
* Does Mayweather really want to fight anymore?
Cotto:
* How much does Cotto really have left?
* Will Cotto become discouraged if Mayweather starts to dominate?
* Can Cotto’s skin and chin hold up to Mayweather’s lightning counters?
PENECALE PREDICTION
Mayweather will keep his distance early, using his footwork to stay away from Cotto and probing with his jab. Cotto will open by coming forward and applying steady pressure, jabbing to the chest, and trying to make Mayweather uncomfortable.
Mayweather will find his back against the ropes in the 2nd round and Cotto will try to smother him and work the body, forcing Mayweather to clinch and prompting the referee to separate them. Cotto will again press forward and wing several heavy but wide body shots that will land against Mayweathers shoulders.
As Cotto continues to his forward march in the 3rd round, Mayweather’s ability to read and react to his opponent will start to make a difference. Mayweather will briefly stand in front of Cotto and split his guard with straight left-right combinations and lead right hands. A series of right hands will cause Cotto’s knees to buckle and blood to flow from his mouth.
Mayweather will be firmly in control by the middle rounds, raking his slower opponent with three and four punch combinations. While Cotto will occasionally step inside and land a thudding blow to Mayweather’s torso, but it won’t be enough to halt his momentum.
Feeling that the fight is firmly in his control and with Cotto’s face gradually morphing to grotesque proportions, Mayweather will hone in for the kill, standing in the pocket and throwing crisp combinations. Cotto will find one last moment of success in the 7th round as he will land a counter left hook flush on Mayweather’s jaw and buckle his knees. As Mayweather staggers back to the corner, Cotto will unleash a torrent of blows, forcing Mayweather to hold on for safety.
Cotto’s success will be short-lived as he tries to attack again, Mayweather will score with counter uppercuts on the inside and open a gash over Cotto’s left eye. With a bull’s eye on the left eye, Mayweather will target it with laser-like right hands.
The assault will continue throughout the 8th round and Cotto will be staggered several times. Referee Tony Weeks will confer with the doctor and they will decide to let Cotto go out like a true champion. But they won’t let it go too long as Mayweather continues to land right hands with ease. With Cotto retreating, a razor-sharp right hand will land and send him staggering back in the neutral corner. Mayweather will step in with a flush four-punch combination that snaps Cotto’s head back and sends blood flying, enough for Weeks to step in and stop the fight.
The winner by TKO at 2: 34 seconds of the 8th round will be FLOYD “MONEY” MAYWEATHER, JR.!!!
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