By: Tony Penecale
Boxing’s Hip-Hop version of professional wrestling legend “Nature Boy” Ric Flair is set to lace up the gloves again this weekend. It is easy to imagine Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. spouting one of Flair’s signature catch-phrases and referring to himself as a “Limousine-riding, Jet-flying, Kiss-stealing, Wheeling-&-Dealing Son-of-a-Gun.” And just like Ric Flair, Mayweather is arguably the best of his generation, a tremendous performer who relishes playing the villain role. This Saturday, after a 364-day hiatus and a brief prison stint, Mayweather will look to turn back the challenge of former two-time champion, Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero. A relentless and determined fighter, Guerrero wants to play the underdog foil to Mayweather, similar to “The American Dream” Dusty Rhodes and his many battles with Ric Flair. As Flair always said “To be the man, you got to beat the man.” On Saturday, we will see if Robert Guerrero can be “The Man!"
AGE, RECORD, AND STATS
Mayweather: Age: 36 years old
Record: 43-0 (26 Knockouts)
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 151 * * Weight for last bout (5-5-12)
Reach: 72”
Guerrero: Age: 30 years old
Record: 31-1-1 (18 Knockouts)
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 146 * * Weight for last bout (11-24-12)
Reach: 70”
RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Mayweather:
1996 Olympic Bronze Medalist
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’98-’02)
WBC Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
Ring Magazine Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)
IBF Welterweight Champion (’06)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’07)
WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’12)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’11-Pres)
Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (’05-’07, ’12-Pres)
Guerrero:
IBF Featherweight Champion (’06-‘08)
IBF Super Featherweight Champion (09)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #9 Boxer (Pres)
STYLE
Mayweather:
A pure boxer with great speed who does everything well with an arsenal that includes a snapping jab, accurate right hand, and left hook that can be doubled and tripled with tremendous effect. Uses feint moves to freeze opponents and open punching lanes. Tucks his chin well behind his shoulder to roll with punches. Even on the ropes, he is a difficult target to land a solid punch. He doesn’t have great punching power. Most of his stoppage victories come from outpunching and outclassing his opponents but rarely scoring clean knockouts.
Guerrero:
A southpaw pressure fighter who has morphed from a quick-fisted boxer into a more aggressive mauler, Guerrero likes to fight on the inside, attacking the body with hooks and uppercuts. He will find the range to land his straight left hand which is his best punch. His best defense is a good offense and opponents have found him open to counter punches. He is not a great puncher but can overwhelm opponents with a relentless attack.
STRENGTHS
Mayweather:
* Experience – Boxing is in Mayweather’s blood since his childhood. Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the bronze medal in the ’96 Olympic Games. He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 15 years, facing and defeating all styles.
* Conditioning – Mayweather is a fitness freak with an amazing work ethic when it comes to training. Few fighters push themselves as much as Mayweather does in the gym, even doing midnight training sessions. It is evident in the ring when his stamina carries him in the late rounds.
* Ring Generalship – Mayweather knows every inch of the ring and how to control a fight. He knows when to attack, when to box, when to turn up the heat, and when to coast. Mayweather owns the ring when he is in there. Even the rare times when he has been stunned in fights, he was able to quickly settle down and quell the threat.
Guerrero:
* Physically Growing – Guerrero started his career at 122 lbs. and has physically grown and matured into his frame. As he has grown, he has added strength and physicality, allowing him to muscle and wear down larger fighters.
* High Character – Guerrero is backed by a strong faith, almost a welterweight version of Evander Holyfield. He believes in himself and his family. When his wife Casey was diagnosed with Leukemia, Guerrero put his family first and took a hiatus from the ring. A prime-time bout with Mayweather is a minor speedbump to the challenges he has already faced and overcome.
* Pressure Style – Guerrero was a slick, quick-fisted boxer earlier in his career. But as he has continued to physically mature, he has adapted his style to apply more pressure on his opponents, attacking them and breaking them mentally as he breaks them physically.
WEAKNESSES
Mayweather:
* Aging – Mayweather may have an unblemished record but Father Time has never been defeated. Since 2007, Mayweather has only had four bouts. In his last bout with Miguel Cotto, the faded Puerto Rican star was able to land several flush shots and leave marks on Mayweather’s face. Since that bout, Father Time has added another year to Mayweather’s body.
* Camp Distractions – There is always the combustible element in the Mayweather family with his volatile father and uncle battling over the years. This marks the first time that Floyd Sr. has worked as his son’s trainer in 13 years, only a year after he was thrown out of his son’s training camp. If things become difficult, it might result in a sibling rivalry with Popppa Floyd and Uncle Roger battling in the corner.
* Punching Power – Most of Mayweather’s stoppage wins have come from an accumulation of punches. The usual result is the referee or opposing corner stopping the bout to prevent further punishment. Notwithstanding his explosive knockout of Victor Ortiz, it is rare to see Mayweather finish a bout with one punch dating back to his days as a 130 lb boxer.
Guerrero:
* Athletic Limitations – As a pure boxer and athlete, Guerrero, while very talented, is nowhere close to Mayweather’s league. There is no flash in his game. He is a quintessential blue-collar fighter with average speed and agility.
* Punching Power – Guerrero has morphed into a very physical fighter who can wear an opponent down with pressure and volume-punching. He has never been seen as a knockout artist and is more likely to win a war of attrition.
* Pending Charges – Guerrero made an innocent mistake in his travels, packing an unloaded gun while passing through an airport in New York. He was immediately arrested and faces possible prison time. Going into the biggest bout of his life, how will this affect his concentration?
PREVIOUS BOUT
Mayweather:
(5/5/12) – Mayweather survived a few scares in winning a unanimous decision over faded former world champion Miguel Cotto. Absorbed several flush shots and suffered a bloody nose but took over as the fight progressed and had Cotto badly hurt in the final round.
Guerrero:
(11/24/12) – Guerrero scored a major upset in dominating former world champion Andre Berto. Attacked Berto early and scored knockdowns, dishing out a ferocious beating over 12 action-packed rounds.
3 BEST PERFORMANCES
Mayweather:
* Diego Corrales (1/20/01) – Experts were torn on who to pick in this one with many leaning towards Corrales to win by KO. Mayweather never let him in the bout, knocking him down five times before the bout was halted in the 10th round.
* Arturo Gatti (6/25/05) – Although Mayweather was a solid betting favorite, many expected Gatti to make things rough for Mayweather. It never happened as Mayweather floored Gatti in the 1st round and dealt out a severe beating before Gatti’s corner stopped the bout after six one-sided rounds.
* Ricky Hatton (12/08/07) – Hatton was undefeated coming into the bout and set a gameplan of constant pressure to wear out Mayweather. After a few uncomfortable rounds, Mayweather was able to find his range and take over, flooring Hatton twice in the 10th round and forcing a stoppage.
Guerrero:
* Andre Berto (11/24/12) – Guerrero had been calling out Mayweather since 2011 but this was the fight that turned it into a reality. Berto was a respected former world champion and was expected to vanquish a perceived blown-up lightweight. Guerrero quickly dispelled that notion, attacking early and flooring Berto in the 1st and 2nd rounds. After 12 rounds, Berto was a beaten and bloody fighter.
* Gamaliel Diaz (6/23/06) – Diaz had upset Guerrero six months earlier by split decision, ruining his undefeated record. Guerrero reunited with his father as trainer and turned in a dominating performance in the rematch, flooring Diaz in the opening round and issuing a thorough beating, before scoring a 6th round TKO.
* Martin Honorio (11/3/07) – While preparing for his defense of the IBF featherweight title, Guerrero’s camp was interrupted with the information that his wife was suffering from leukemia. Guerrero fought with focus and resolve, fighting Honorio as if it was the leukemia that afflicted his wife, destroying him in one round.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Mayweather:
* Find the home for his straight right hand. Land it and move.
* Keep the action in the center of the ring and stay off the ropes.
* Use his superior skills to control the tempo and not allow himself to get goaded into a slugfest.
Guerrero:
* Use his power left hand. Fire it straight and then arc it around Mayweather’s gloves. Double and triple it to keep Mayweather from countering.
* Cut the ring off and force Mayweather to fight in confined spaces.
* Rough Mayweather up on the inside and use a sustained body attack to wear him down.
QUESTIONS
Mayweather:
* Will Father Time finally catch Mayweather?
* Can Mayweather stand up to Guerrero’s physical attack?
* Does Mayweather really want to fight anymore?
Guerrero:
* Is Guerrero ready for a fight of this magnitude?
* Will Guerrero become discouraged if Mayweather starts to dominate?
* Does Guerrero have the punching power to hurt Mayweather?
PENECALE PREDICTION
Mayweather will keep his distance early, using his footwork to stay away from Guerrero and probing with his jab, and throwing a few quick one-two combinations. Guerrero will move forward, trying to cut the ring off on Mayweather, and throwing a variety of wild shots to the body.
Guerrero will try to keep the pace fast in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. He will be playing the role of the bull while Mayweather is content to play the matador. Mayweather will use his footwork to keep the fight in the center of the ring and on the few occasions when he finds himself against the ropes, he will lean back to avoid punches to his head, and keep his arms crossed to defend his body.
Mayweather will land several straight right hands in the 4th round, snapping Guerrero’s head back and causing a trickle of blood to drip from his nose. Despite the blood, Guerrero will continue to apply pressure and add a few rough-house tactics with his elbows in hopes to wear down his quicker opponent. The infractions will get the attention of referee Robert Byrd who will warn, but not penalize, Guerrero.
Going into the 6th round, leading 49-45 on the cards, Mayweather will ease a bit and allow Guerrero to control the action. Guerrero will continue to force the action, winging hard but inaccurate body punches and landing a few hard but ineffective left hands to the face.
Mayweather, after giving up the 6th round, will change his tactics and fight more aggressively, meeting Guerrero in mid-right and out-punching him with his superior speed and accuracy. The effects will be evident as Guerrero will show damage around his left eye, as it swells and turns grotesquely purple.
Guerrero will continue to fight hard over the next few rounds but won’t have the punching power to damage or discourage Mayweather. He will land a few glancing punches but nothing of note, while Mayweather continues to land his laser beam right hand, piling the points and controlling the action.
As the bout enters the final three rounds, Guerrero, knowing he is hopelessly behind and in need of a knockout, will give it his best effort. His straight-forward aggression will play into Mayweather’s hands. He will look like a sharpshooter, landing accurate counter right hands and pivoting away from danger before Guerrero can land. On the few occasions where he finds himself on the ropes, Mayweather will either pivot out and move back to the center or simply clinch and force Byrd to separate them. As the seconds tick away, Guerrero will swing wildly hoping for the grand slam, only hitting air as Mayweather smiles at him at the final bell.
Jerry Roth and Julie Lederman will score it 117-111 while Duane Ford sees it 118-110 and the winner by Unanimous Decision will be Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr.!!!
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