Tony "The Tornado" Penecale's Mayweather v. Maidana Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

Mayweather             vs.            Maidana

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

If Floyd Mayweather Jr’s boxing career was a game show, it would be the equivalent of “The Price is Right.”  Contestants are lined up, each hoping to get that magical call.  In the Mayweather version, he would stand there like Bob Barker as Golden Boy CEO Richard Schaefer would emulate the voice of Rod Roddy, bellowing “Marcos Maidana….COME ON DOWN!”  For the tough-as-nails fighter from Argentina, he was thrilled to get the call.  Originally, an online poll selected talented-but-frail Amir Khan as the opponent.  But, Maidana’s win over Mayweather’s friend and “Mini-Me” clone Adrien Broner thrust him into this opportunity.   

The Moment is here.  Can Maidana capitalize on it?  Or, will he be the next to succumb to Mayweather’s magic?  Marcos Maidana is heeding the call to “COME ON DOWN,” and he's responding.  The question now is whether or not he can succeed!

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Mayweather:                      Age:  37 years old

                                    Record:  45-0 (26 Knockouts)

                                    Height:  5’8”

                                    Weight:  150   * * Weight for last bout (9-14-13)

                                    Reach:  72”

Maidana:                  Age:  30 years old

                                    Record:  35-3 (31 Knockouts)

                                    Height:  5’7”

                                    Weight:  146   * * Weight for last bout (12-14-13)

                                    Reach:  69”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Mayweather:         

1996 Olympic Bronze Medalist

                                    WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’98-’02)

                                    WBC Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)

                                    Ring Magazine Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)

                                    WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)

                                    IBF Welterweight Champion (’06)

                                    WBC Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)

                                    WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’07)

                                    WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’12)

                                    WBC Welterweight Champion (’11-Pres)

                                    Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)

                                    Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (’05-’07, ’12-Pres)

Maidana:                 

WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’11-‘12)

WBA Welterweight Champion (’13-‘Pres)

STYLE

Mayweather: 

A pure boxer with great speed who does everything well with an arsenal that includes a snapping jab, accurate right hand, and left hook that can be doubled and tripled with tremendous effect.  Uses feint moves to freeze opponents and open punching lanes.  Tucks his chin well behind his shoulder to roll with punches.  Even on the ropes, he is a difficult target to land a solid punch on.  He doesn’t have great punching power.  Most of his stoppage victories come from out-punching and outclassing his opponents but rarely scoring clean knockouts.

Maidana:        

An aggressive and physical pressure fighter with power in both hands.  Comes straight ahead and attacks with swarming punches to the head and body.  Often neglects defense and relies on his chin and resiliency.  Likes to fight in close and utilize rough-house tactics.  Is a seasoned finisher once an opponent has been hurt, attacking without caution.  Not especially fast, he is best served when keeping the action in close where he can dominate with his strength.

 STRENGTHS

Mayweather:

* Experience – Boxing is in Mayweather’s blood, and he's boxed himself since his childhood.  Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the bronze medal in the ’96 Olympic Games.  He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 16 years, facing and defeating all styles.

                           * Conditioning – Mayweather is a fitness freak with an amazing work ethic when it comes to training.  Few fighters push themselves as much as Mayweather does in the gym, even doing midnight training sessions.  It is evident in the ring when his stamina carries him in the late rounds.

                           * Ring Generalship – Mayweather knows every inch of the ring and how to control a fight.  He knows when to attack, when to box, when to turn up the heat, and when to coast.  Mayweather owns the ring when he's in there.  Even the rare times when he has been stunned in fights, he quickly settles down to quell the threat.

Maidana:        

* Punching Power – Of Maidana’s 35 professional victories, 31 opponents failed to see the final bell.  Maidana complements his swarming pressure with thunderous power in both hands.  He can hurt opponents with both hands, with shots to the body and head.

* Resiliency – Maidana has been floored or hurt early in fights, and he always manages to rebound.  Victor Ortiz floored him three times, and Amir Khan had him down and seriously hurt with a body shot.  Maidana rebounded to knock out Ortiz and punish Kahn en-route to a close decision loss.

* Conditioning – Maidana is always in tremendous shape.  He applies pressure from the opening bell and rarely backs up or slows down.  Like an Argentina-version of Joe Frazier, he wears opponents down with pressure, stamina, and will. 

WEAKNESSES

Mayweather:

* Aging – Mayweather may have an unblemished record but Father Time has never been defeated.  Since 2007, Mayweather has only fought in six bouts.  In his bout with Miguel Cotto, the faded Puerto Rican star was able to land several flush shots and leave marks on Mayweather’s face.  Even with the impressive performance over Alvarez, Father Time has added more time to Mayweather’s body.

                           * Extracurricular Activities – Maweather loves to be in the public eye.  Whether he’s gambling on sporting events, flying on his private jet to various functions, or talking about purchasing the Los Angeles Clippers, Mayweather is always going full tilt.  While he still trains at an elite level, his focus seems to be especially lacking for this fight. 

                           * Punching Power – Most of Mayweather’s stoppage wins have come from an accumulation of punches.  The usual result is the referee or opposing corner stopping the bout to prevent further punishment.  Notwithstanding his explosive knockout of Victor Ortiz, it is rare to see Mayweather finish a bout with one punch dating back to his days as a 130 lb boxer. 

Maidana:        

 * Lack of Speed – Maidana’s main weakness is a lack of foot and hand speed.  He often struggles to keep up with fleet boxers and has been out-boxed during stretches of bouts.  His power has bailed him out on several occasions.  It remains to be seen if it can save him against a superior boxer like Mayweather.

                           * Defense – Maidana fights under the belief that the best defense is a good offense.  He comes straight in and throws a variety of wide punches, leaving himself wide open for counter punches.

                           * Dirty Tactics – Maidana is not shy about bending or breaking the rules.  He has been penalized for hitting on the break and using his elbows.  He's also known for his punches straying low and using his head as a weapon.  Mayweather’s camp will undoubtedly have the referee looking out for any infractions.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Mayweather: 

(9/14/13) – Mayweather put on a genuine boxing clinic against the undefeated and larger Saul Canelo Alvarez.  Mayweather used his superior footwork and counter-punching ability to thwart the pressure of his younger but significantly less-experienced opponent.  After 12 lopsided rounds, Mayweather handed Alvarez his first professional defeat.

Maidana:        

(12/14/13) – Maidana swarmed the previously-undefeated Adrien Broner from the start.  Maidana’s pressure and two-fisted attack broke through Broner’s defense, scoring knockdowns in the 2^nd and 8^th rounds, and punishing him throughout the fight on his way to a unanimous decision victory.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Mayweather:

* Diego Corrales (1/20/01) – Experts were torn on who to pick in this one with many leaning towards Corrales to win by KO.  Mayweather never let him in the bout, knocking him down five times before the bout was halted in the 10th round.

                           * Arturo Gatti (6/25/05) – Although Mayweather was a solid betting favorite, many expected Gatti to make things rough for Mayweather.  It never happened as Mayweather floored Gatti in the 1st round and dealt out a severe beating before Gatti’s corner stopped the bout after six one-sided rounds.

                           * Ricky Hatton (12/08/07) – Hatton was undefeated coming into the bout and set a game plan of constant pressure to wear out Mayweather.  After a few uncomfortable rounds, Mayweather was able to find his range and take over, flooring Hatton twice in the 10th round and forcing a stoppage.

Maidana:        

* Adrien Broner (12/14/13) – Broner likened himself to a Mayweather clone, a tribute to his friend and idol.  Maidana exposed Broner as a cheap carbon copy, backing him up with constant pressure, and breaking through his Mayweather-esque style of defense.  Maidana scored knockdowns in the 2^nd and 8^th rounds and handed Broner his first career defeat.

                           * Victor Ortiz (6/27/09) – This was supposed to be Ortiz’s breakout party on HBO, but Maidana stole the show.  Both fighters exchanged knockdowns in the 1^st round and Ortiz had a big round in the 2^nd, scoring two knockdowns.  Maidana recuperated and willed his way back in the fight, battering a tiring Ortiz in the 6^th, knocking him down and forcing him to surrender.

                            * Victor Manuel Cayo (3/27/10) – Cayo was undefeated in 24 bouts coming in and had pockets of success using his boxing skills against Maidana.  But he was unable to stand up to Maidana’s pressure and power.  A brutal body shot crumbled Cayo in the 6^th round where he was counted out.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Mayweather:

* Use angles and time Maidana with straight right hands.

* Keep the action in the center of the ring and stay off the ropes.

* Do not try to retaliate against Maidana’s rough-house tactics.

Maidana:        

* Feint to the right to bait Mayweather into his shoulder roll and dig a left hook to the solar plexus.

                           * Cut the ring off and force Mayweather to fight in confined spaces.

                           * Fight aggressive, but fight smart.

QUESTIONS

Mayweather:

* Will Father Time finally catch Mayweather?

* Will Mayweather overlook Maidana?

* Does Mayweather really want to fight anymore?

Maidana:        

* Can Maidana duplicate the success he had against Broner?

                           * Does Maidana have the speed to keep up with Mayweather?

                           * Will he be too aggressive and leave himself open for counters?

                          

PENECALE PREDICTION

Mayweather will keep his distance early.  As he has become accustomed to, Mayweather will use his legs, preventing Maidana from setting his feet.  Mayweather will probe with his jab and pivot on angles.  Maidana will try to pressure, but on the few occasions when Mayweather’s back touches the ropes, he will quickly maneuver out of harm’s way.

Maidana will continually move forward, and when he gets close enough, he’ll try to implement the “Marciano Strategy," not focusing on Mayweather’s elusive head, but instead landing wherever he can on the torso, arms, and shoulders.  Maidana will land a few punches to the shoulders and an occasional shot to the rib cage, but Mayweather will be continually faster and technically superior. 

Mayweather’s continued advantages in speed and skill will increasingly frustrate Maidana, who will show signs of desperation as early as the 5^th round.   Maidana will force Mayweather to the ropes, winging wide power shots to the body.  Mayweather will counter with a few short uppercuts and clinch Maidana, who will respond by driving his shoulder into Mayweathers face, earning a stern warning from referee Tony Weeks.

As the fight progresses, it will resemble Mayweather’s encounters with Carlos Baldomir, Robert Guererro, and Canelo Alvarez, world-class fighters who were outclassed by Mayweather’s breath-taking speed and ring generalship.

Starting the 8^th round with blood trickling from his nose and an abrasion over his left eye, Maidana will increase his pressure, hoping his power can turn the tables.  Mayweather will begin to sharpshoot with his right hand, doubling it and turning it for an uppercut.  Maidana will dip low and land a hard punch below the belt.  As Mayweather turns away in pain, Maidana will throw another two punches before Weeks jumps in to stop the action.  For the flagarant foul, Weeks will penalize Maidana a point, increasing his near insurmountable deficit.

Well ahead on the cards going into the final rounds, Mayweather will box smartly, allowing Maidana to advance, and then stopping him with sharp right hands, and stepping away from danger.  The pattern will repeat itself with Mayweather setting traps, drawing Maidana in, and raking him with combinations, before moving side to side.

The 12^th round will see Maidana will an exasperated look on his face as he tries to corner Floyd and land a solid punch, a much more daunting task than he found against Broner.  As the seconds tick down, Floyd will flash a smile and raise his hands at the final bell.

The decision will be unanimous.  Dave Moretti will score 120-107, Burt Clements 119-108, and Michael Pernick will reward Maidana with 3 rounds and score 117-110.  The winner by Unanimous Decision and "still" undefeated will be Floyd “Money” Mayweather, Junior.