Tony "The Tornado" Penecale's Mayweather vs. Maidana 2 Preview and Prediction

Mayweather             vs.            Maidana

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By: Tony Penecale

Four months ago, Floyd Mayweather was pressed to the maximum over 12 rough-and-tumble rounds by an upset-minded Marcos Maidana.  At the bout’s conclusion, some observers even thought Maidana had earned the victory.  His blazing start and rough-house tactics had the usually-untouchable Mayweather fighting to preserve his unblemished record.  Mayweather’s adjustments allowed him to control the bout’s second half and capture a majority decision by scores of 117-111, 116-112, and 114-114.  In order to erase any doubts, Mayweather has granted a rematch, intending to vanquish his ruthless adversary.  Will Floyd Mayweather take the next step towards his goal of retiring undefeated or can Marcos Maidana bring unprecedented mayhem to the boxing world?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Mayweather:                      Age:  37 years old

                                    Record:  46-0 (26 Knockouts)

                                    Height:  5’8”

                                    Weight:  146   * * Weight for last bout (5-3-14)

                                    Reach:  72”

Maidana:                  Age:  31 years old

                                    Record:  35-4 (31 Knockouts)

                                    Height:  5’7”

                                    Weight:  146   * * Weight for last bout (5-3-14)

                                    Reach:  69”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Mayweather:         

1996 Olympic Bronze Medalist

                                    WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’98-’02)

                                    WBC Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)

                                    Ring Magazine Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)

                                    WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)

                                    IBF Welterweight Champion (’06)

                                    WBC Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)

                                    WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’07)

                                    WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’12)

                                    WBC Welterweight Champion (’11-Pres)

                                    Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)

                                    Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (’05-’07, ’12-Pres)

Maidana:                 

WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’11-‘12)

WBA Welterweight Champion (’13-‘Pres)

STYLE

Mayweather: 

A pure boxer with great speed who does everything well with an arsenal that includes a snapping jab, accurate right hand, and left hook that can be doubled and tripled with tremendous effect.  Uses feint moves to freeze opponents and open punching lanes.  Tucks his chin well behind his shoulder to roll with punches.  Even on the ropes, he is a difficult target to land a solid punch.  He doesn’t have great punching power.  Most of his stoppage victories come from outpunching and outclassing his opponents but rarely scoring clean knockouts.

Maidana:        

An aggressive and physical pressure fighter with power in both hands.  Comes straight ahead and attacks with swarming punches to the head and body.  Often neglects defense and relies on his chin and resiliency.  Likes to fight in close and utilize rough-house tactics.  Is a seasoned finisher once an opponent has been hurt, attacking without caution.  Not especially fast, he is best served when keeping the action in close where he can dominate with his strength.

STRENGTHS

Mayweather:

* Experience – Boxing is in Mayweather’s blood since his childhood.  Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the bronze medal in the ’96 Olympic Games.  He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 16 years, facing and defeating all styles.

                           * Conditioning – Mayweather is a fitness freak with an amazing work ethic when it comes to training.  Few fighters push themselves as much as Mayweather does in the gym, even doing midnight training sessions.  It is evident in the ring when his stamina carries him in the late rounds.

                           * Ring Generalship – Mayweather knows every inch of the ring and how to control a fight.  He knows when to attack, when to box, when to turn up the heat, and when to coast.  Mayweather owns the ring when he is in there.  Even the rare times when he has been stunned in fights, he was able to quickly settle down and quell the threat.

Maidana:        

* Punching Power – Of Maidana’s 35 professional victories, 31 failed to see the final bell.  Maidana complements his swarming pressure with thunderous power in both hands.  He has hurt opponents with both hands with shots to the body and head.

* Resiliency – Maidana has been floored or hurt early in fights and he has always managed to rebound.  Victor Ortiz floored him three times and Amir Khan had him down and seriously hurt with a body shot.  Maidana rebounded to knock out Ortiz and punish Kahn en route to a close decision loss.

* Conditioning – Maidana is always in tremendous shape.  He applies pressure from the opening bell and rarely backs up or slows down.  Like an Argentina-version of Joe Frazier, he wears opponents down with pressure, stamina, and will. 

WEAKNESSES

Mayweather:

* Aging – Mayweather may have an unblemished record but Father Time has never been defeated.  Mayweather seemed flat-footed and more hittable during his first encounter with Maidana.  It could be a case of taking his opponent lightly or having an off night.  But it could also be the proof that his skills are slowly starting to erode.

                           * Extra circular Activities – Maweather loves to be in the public eye.  Whether he’s gambling on sporting events, flying on his private jet to various functions, or making appearances at different boxing events, Mayweather is always going full tilt.  While he still trains at an elite level, his attention is becoming more frequently divided. 

                           * Punching Power – Most of Mayweather’s stoppage wins have come from an accumulation of punches.  The usual result is the referee or opposing corner stopping the bout to prevent further punishment.  Notwithstanding his explosive knockout of Victor Ortiz, it is rare to see Mayweather finish a bout with one punch dating back to his days as a 130 lb boxer. 

Maidana:        

 * Lack of Speed – Maidana’s main weakness is a lack of foot and hand speed.  He often struggles to keep up with fleet boxers and has been outboxed during stretches of bouts.  His power has bailed him out on several occasions.  When Mayweather was able to shift their fight into the center of the ring, Maidana’s offense became impotent.

                           * Defense – Maidana fights under the belief that the best defense is a good offense.  He comes straight in and throws a variety of wide punches, leaving himself wide open for counter punches.

                           * Dirty Tactics – Maidana is not shy about bending or breaking the rules.  He has been penalized in past bouts and against Mayweather, he brought out all the dirty tactics.  With the complaints levied by the Mayweather camp, referee Kenny Bayliss will be watching closely for any infractions.

PREVIOUS BOUT

(5/3/14) – Mayweather won a tougher-than-expected majority decision over Maidana four months ago.  Maidana had early success, applying relentless pressure and bullying Mayweather back to the ropes.  While Maidana’s high volume punching was impressive, he didn’t land as many clean punches as it originally appeared.  Mayweather controlled the final six rounds, keeping the action in the center of the ring and negating Maidana’s pressure.  Despite it being a far-from-dominant performance, Mayweather was correctly awarded the decision victory.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Mayweather:

* Diego Corrales (1/20/01) – Experts were torn on who to pick in this one with many leaning towards Corrales to win by KO.  Mayweather never let him in the bout, knocking him down five times before the bout was halted in the 10th round.

                           * Arturo Gatti (6/25/05) – Although Mayweather was a solid betting favorite, many expected Gatti to make things rough for Mayweather.  It never happened as Mayweather floored Gatti in the 1st round and dealt out a severe beating before Gatti’s corner stopped the bout after six one-sided rounds.

                           * Ricky Hatton (12/8/07) – Hatton was undefeated coming into the bout and set a gameplan of constant pressure to wear out Mayweather.  After a few uncomfortable rounds, Mayweather was able to find his range and take over, flooring Hatton twice in the 10th round and forcing a stoppage.

Maidana:        

* Adrien Broner (12/14/13) – Broner likened himself to a Mayweather clone, a tribute to this friend and idol.  Maidana exposed Broner as a cheap carbon copy, backing him up with constant pressure, and breaking through his Mayweather-esque style of defense.  Maidana scored knockdowns in the 2^nd and 8^th rounds and handed Broner his first career defeat.

                           * Victor Ortiz (6/27/09) – This was supposed to be Ortiz’s breakout party on HBO, but Maidana stole the show.  Both fighters exchanged knockdowns in the 1^st round and Ortiz had a big round in the 2^nd, scoring two knockdowns.  Maidana recuperated and willed his way back in the fight, battering a tiring Ortiz in the 6^th, knocking him down and forcing him to surrender.

                            * Victor Manuel Cayo (3/27/10) – Cayo was undefeated in 24 bouts coming in and had pockets of success using his boxing skills against Maidana.  But he was unable to stand up to Maidana’s pressure and power.  A brutal body shot crumbled Cayo in the 6^th round where he was counted out.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Mayweather:

* Use angles and time Maidana with a straight right hand.

* Keep the action in the center of the ring and stay off the ropes.

* Do not try to retaliate with Maidana’s rough tactics.

Maidana:        

* When Mayweather uses his shoulder roll, step over and fire left hooks to the solar plexus and head.

                           * Cut the ring off and force Mayweather to fight in confined spaces.

                           * Fight aggressive but fight smart.

QUESTIONS

Mayweather:

* Are Mayweather’s skills really declining?

* Will Mayweather get drawn into Maidana’s game?

* Does Mayweather really want to fight anymore?

Maidana:        

* Can Maidana duplicate the success he had in the early rounds?

                           * Is Madiana versatile enough to switch gameplans?

                           * Can Maidana stay within the rules?

                          

PENECALE PREDICTION

Maidana will come out like a bull on the rampage, looking to replicate his early-rounds success in the first encounter.  Mayweather will be looking to continue his late-rounds success, using angles to keep the action in ring center.  Maywather will feint, pivot, and jab.  Maidana will try to up the tempo with his aggression.  Unlike their first encounter, when Mayweather was forced on his heels, this time, he will be more inclined to tie up his adversary and force Maidana to expend energy trying to free himself and land wild punches.

Maidana will finally get Mayweather on the ropes in the 2^nd round and launch a two-fisted attack, focusing on Mayweather’s torso and landing a few looping shots aimed at the head.  Only a handful of shots will land clean, but he will be content to land punishing blows to the shoulders and forearms.  The 2^nd round will be effective for Maidana but he will also get a few stern looks from referee Kenny Bayliss for his rough-house tactics, pushing and jamming his shoulder under Mayweather’s chin.

Mayweather will look to regroup in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds, pivoting left and right whenever Maidana backs him towards the ropes and using the opportunity to land counter right hands and left hooks.  Mayweather will double his jab and drop a right hand to the body that causes Maidana to wince.

Maidiana will have a slight resurgence in the 5^th, pinning Mayweather to the ropes, and following a looping right with a hard left hook that splits through as Mayweather is rolling away and crashes square into his face.  Maidana will burrow in and, as Mayweather intiates a clinch, bounces his shoulder under Mayweather’s chin.  Bayliss will issue a formal warning to Maidana.  The round will end before Maidana is able to follow up on his attack.

Maidana will continue to press the action in the 6^th round and will get frustrated as Mayweather ties him up on the inside, thwarting any offensive opportunities.  Maidana will try to fight his way out and will sink an uppercut well below the belt.  Bayliss will issue a final warning and allow Mayweather time to recover.

Mayweather will start to make adjustments, finding a home for lead right hands and uppercuts as Maidana attacks.  The shorter punches will split Maidana’s guard and continually beat him to the punch.  Maidana will pound his gloves together in frustration but Mayweather will just smile at him and stick out his tongue as the 7^th round ends.

As Mayweather asserted control over the final rounds in their first encounter, he will do the same here.  His versatility and ring generalship will own the day.  Maidana will continue to press the action but will find himself getting hit more frequently while his looping punches increasingly fall short.

Maidana will come out for the 11^th round with blood dripping from his nose and abrasions around his left eye.  Mayweather will not be unscathed with his lip split and some welts around his ribs and shoulders.  But Mayweather will be the fresher fighter and in control, firing one-two combinations and sliding away when Maidana tries to counter.  The final bell will see both warriors raise their weary arms, but the look in their eyes will show that Mayweather knows he clearly won while Maidana has a defeated expression.

The decision will be unanimous.  Dave Moretti and Guido Cavalleri will both score 118-1110, while John McKaie sees it closer at 116-113.  The winner by Unanimous Decision will be Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr.