By Tony Penecale
If
you were writing a movie script, the storyline would be perfect. Miguel Cotto, the Puerto Rican boxing icon,
is striving to be the 1st Puerto Rican fighter to win world titles
in four weight classes. He would be
fighting to achieve this accomplishment in front of a partisan crowd, at
Madison Square Garden, on the eve of the annual New York Puerto Rican Day
parade. The setting is perfect. But in Cotto’s way is the reigning
middleweight champion, the highly-respected and favored Sergio “Marvilla”
Martinez. In taking on the naturally
larger Martinez, Cotto is challenging a skilled southpaw, winner of his last
seven fights, and who’s only two blemishes since 2000 (a loss and a draw) were
both extremely controversial. Can Cotto
carry out the underdog script and dramatically win, kicking off a raucous
Puerto Rican celebration? Or will
Martinez ruin the storybook ending and turn Cotto’s dream into a nightmare?
AGE,
RECORD, AND STATS
Martinez: Age:
39 years old
Record: 51-2-2 (28 Knockouts)
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 159 *
* Weight for last bout (4-27-13)
Reach: 73”
Cotto: Age: 33 years old
Record: 38-4 (31 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 153 *
* Weight for last bout (10-5-13)
Reach: 67”
RING
ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Martinez:
WBO
Middleweight Champion (‘10)
WBO
Middleweight Champion (‘10-Pres)
Ring
Magazine Pound-4-Pound #5 Boxer (Pres)
Cotto:
WBO Junior Welterweight
Champion (’04-‘06)
WBA
Welterweight Champion (’06-‘08)
WBO
Welterweight Champion (’09)
WBA
Junior Middleweight Champion (’10-‘12)
STYLE
Martinez:
A
well-schooled and conditioned southpaw boxer Martinez is fast and
athletic. Martinez will use his jab to
set up his left hand which he throws both straight and arching. Also has a good right hook, either as a lead
punch or finishing punch in a combination.
Has increased his punching power over the last few years. Will sometimes fall into defensive lapses
when focusing too solely on offense. Is
also an effective counterpuncher.
Cotto:
A
physical stalker who boxes from the orthodox stance, Cotto has developed better
boxing skills but still prefers to come straight ahead, and wear opponents down
with a vicious body attack. Cotto favors
hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of
attrition. Doesn’t have lights-out
punching power but is very punishing.
Most of his stoppage victories have come late, after his opponent has
been worn down. Will often leave himself
open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.
STRENGTHS
Martinez:
*
Versatility – Martinez has many talents in the boxing game. He can box from the outside, fight
aggressively, or work as a counter puncher.
He can make changes and adapt to the style best needed to thwart his
opponent.
* Increased Power – While
Martinez only has 28 knockout victories in 51 career wins, he has increased his
punching power as he has gotten older.
He is more apt to sit down on his punches and land them with increased
velocity.
* Well-Schooled – Martinez
is a well-schooled boxer with great ring generalship. He understands timing, movement, angles, and
counterpunches. He controls the ring
when he is in there.
Cotto:
*
Body Attack – Cotto is quite possibly the best body puncher in the sport
today. He wings thunderous hooks on the
inside that make contact with whatever is available: ribs, shoulders, torso,
chest, and arms, with punishing results.
*
Strength – Cotto is a strong and physical fighter. While he fights at junior middleweight, he
has the physical stature and physicality of a super middleweight, which he uses
to muscle and wear down opponents.
*
Warrior Mentality – Cotto carries a lot of pride when he steps into the
ring. He has been in a number of wars
where he’s been cut, knocked down, or in other adverse situations, and Cotto
has shown a champion’s heart.
WEAKNESSES
Martinez:
*
Aging – Father Time is slowly creeping up on Martinez who is 39 years old and a
veteran of 55 professional fights. In
his fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, Martinez suffered a broken hand and
torn meniscus in his knee. Both injuries
resurfaced in his win over Martin Murray leading to speculation that Martinez
has suddenly become frail and injury-prone.
* Defensive Lapses – Martinez
will sometimes forgo defense when on the attack, throwing punches with his
hands at this sides. When that is the
case, Martinez is there to be hit. He
has been knocked down in his last three fights.
* Inactivity – Martinez
has not fought in 14 months and only once in the last 21 months as he recovered
from previous injuries. The combination
of age, health, and inactivity could leave Martinez rusty and flat for this bout.
Cotto:
* Effects of Wars – Cotto has been fighting at
a world-class level for a decade and has been in a number of grueling and
taxing battles. Not just the punishment
endured in his stoppage losses to Pacquiao and Margarito, but also in his bouts
with Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, and Floyd Mayweather. Even the greatest warriors can only endure so
much.
* Easy to Hit – Cotto
has made improvements with his defense but still has the mindset that his best
defense is a good offense. His wide open
offense and relentless body attack often leaves him open to be hit with
counterpunches, primarily hooks and uppercuts.
* Trouble with Boxers
– Never fleet of foot, as Cotto has gotten older, his ability to deal with
quicker boxers has increasingly become a liability. He was dominated by Pacquiao, couldn’t catch
up with Mayweather, and in his last loss, completed baffled by the quicker
Austin Trout.
PREVIOUS
BOUT
Martinez:
(4/27/13)
– Martinez had a tougher-than-expected time with the undefeated, but largely
unknown, Martin Murray. Murray scored a
knockdown in the 8th round but it was Martinez utilizing his
experience and guile to narrowly win a unanimous decision.
Cotto:
(10/5/13)
– Cotto looked like a prime version of himself destroying Delvin Rodriguez in
three rounds. Cotto was able to keep
pressure on Rodriguez and punish him with thunderous body shots, flooring his
opponent and forcing the stoppage.
3 BEST PERFORMANCES
Martinez:
*
Paul Williams (11/20/10) – Martinez left no doubt in a rematch with the lanky
Williams, who had beaten him by split decision the previous year. Martinez had Williams timed and landed a big
left hand over Williams’ low jab, knocking him cold before he hit the canvas.
* Kelly Pavlik (4/17/10)
– Martinez was able to neutralize the power-punching middleweight champion,
annexing his title in the process.
Martinez had success early before Pavlik rebounded strong in the mid
rounds. Entering the championship
rounds, Martinez regained control, opening a bad cuts over Pavlik’s eyes and
outworking him for the decision win.
* Julio Cesar Chavez
Jr. (9/15/12) – Martinez used his superior skills and experience to outbox and
dominate the younger and larger Chavez.
Well ahead on the cards, Martinez had to survive a last-round attack his
desperate opponent and was able to hold on to earn a unanimous decision win.
Cotto:
*
Zab Judah (6/09/07) – Cotto had
to endure some difficult moments early against the speedy southpaw, getting
rocked and suffering a cut under his lip.
Cotto’s relentless pressure gradually broke down Judah, sapping his strength. Cotto finished the show, dropping Judah in the
9th round before finally stopping him in 11 rounds.
* Antonio Margarito (12/3/11) – Cotto
avenged his first career loss, bludgeoning Margarito over nine rounds. Cotto used superior boxing skills to control
the pace and hit the slower Margarito at will.
He avoided the same pratfalls that doomed him in their first bout and
his left hooks rendered Margarito a swollen mess, which prompted the ringside
physician to halt the contest.
* Alfonso Gomez (4/12/08) – Cotto put on a
stunning display, mixing boxing skills with a vicious body attack to completely
obliterate popular “Contender” alum Gomez by 5th round TKO. Cotto dominated the action and scored
knockdowns in the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounds,
beating Gomez into submission.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Martinez:
*
Use angles and box from the outside
*
Keep the action in the center of the ring and stay off the ropes.
*
Time Cotto’s rushes and land counter punches
Cotto:
*
Use a straight right hand to open Martinez up for left hooks to the head and
body
* Do not attack
recklessly
* Use a sustained attack
to the body, arms, and torso
QUESTIONS
Martinez:
*
Can his aging body physically endure a grueling pace?
*
Will Martinez be rusty from his inactivity?
*
Can he avoid a defensive lapse?
Cotto:
*
How much does Cotto really have left?
* Does he have the
size to challenge the larger Martinez in close?
* Can Cotto’s skin
and chin hold up to Martinez’s power punches?
PENECALE PREDICTION
Martinez
will move to his right and use his jab to control the distance. He’ll use the jab, doubling it, and
feinting. Cotto will stalk, parrying
Martinez’s jab and trying to step in to hit the body. Cotto will miss wildly with a few hooks but
will continue to press.
Cotto
will be able to land a few hard jabs to the body, followed by an occasional
hook but will unable to keep up with Martinez’s natural advantages in speed and
athleticism. Martinez will step to the
right, feint a jab, and land a flush left uppercut to Cotto’s face, causing him
to briefly wobble.
Martinez
will pick up the pace in the 4th round, standing in front of Cotto,
hands low and firing one-two combinations.
Cotto will show the effects as blood drips from his nose and mouth. But Cotto’s warrior spirit will not be broken
and he will still be in front of Martinez, wading through punches just to land
a few of his own.
From
the 5th through 7th rounds, Martinez will gradually start
to run away with the fight. He is too
big and the same Cotto punches that broke down welterweights will not have the
same effect. Sensing desperation, Cotto
will muster every ounce of power into his punches. Martinez will counter a wide Cotto left hook
with a right hook-left uppercut combo that will drop Cotto to his knees in the
waning moments of the 7th round.
Battered
and bloodied, Cotto will be on the verge of defeat as the 8th round
starts. 30 seconds into the round,
Martinez will push him to the edge, trapping Cotto on the ropes and sitting
down on some hard combinations. Cotto
will try to retaliate with a winging right hand but Martinez will step back and
then counter with an overhand left that slumps Cotto against the ropes. Referee Michael Griffin will start the count
but after looking more closely will stop the fight as the brave but beaten
Cotto struggles to his feet.
The
winner by TKO at 54 seconds of the 8th round will be SERGIO
“MARVILLA” MARTINEZ
